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Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.