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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its sixth premier in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”