Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.